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An erosion of confidence

July 3, 2012 - Harry Eagar
Longtime readers know that RtO considers anthropogenic global warming an unproven idea, and the notion that 'there was no Medieval Warm Period' a proven error. They may idly wonder why I haven't had a global warming post in a while.

It's because the evidence is in. You either get it or you don't. However, a few days ago I visited Real Climate, just out of curiosity, and was surprised to find this from 'eric':

"In the Northern Hemisphere, the late 20th / early 21st century has been the hottest time period in the last 400 years at very high confidence, and likely in the last 1000 – 2000 years (or more). It has been unclear whether this is also true in the Southern Hemisphere."

What follows is more alarmism, but read that introduction carefully, recalling that RC is the high shrine of the-science-is-settled propaganda. It is where we have been assured that there couldn't have been a Medieval Warm Period.

This has been presented as such solid knowledge that anyone who doubts it is a 'denialist,' an intellectual nihilist akin to people who don't believe the Nazis murdered the Jews. Yet 'eric' has high confidence that it has been warm only for the last 400 years. He thinks it very likely that it was warming straight through from 1,000 years ago (the MWP), but that must mean he thinks it is at least somewhat likely that it wasn't.

Also, it has been 'unclear' whether the Southern Hemisphere has been warming. How's that again? It's global warming, 'eric.' If it wasn't warming in the South, then it wasn't global.

Anyhow, the era of 'high confidence' turns out to mean less than nothing as well. We denialists, who think that there has been a cycling of warm-cool-warm over fairly consistent periods of around 500 years, for at least the past 2,000 years, agree that it has gotten warmer over the past 300-400 years of so.

The Little Ice Age ended, the alpine glaciers retreated tens of miles or more, all without any assist from emissions of internal combustion engines. So it follows that, until the next cool period starts, which probably isn't far off, the trend has been for more warmth.

Consider what it would imply if the globe hadn't trended warmer since the end of the Little Ice Age: It would probably signal the renewal of the Big Ice Age, which is due about now.

 
 

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