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Battlegrounds? What battlegrounds

November 6, 2012 - Harry Eagar
The polls have just started closing in some eastern precincts. You sure cannot tell that the election hinges on closely-contested "battleground" states from the behavior of Intrade bettors.

Intrade considers 12 states battlegrounds. Its bettors are treating 11 as landslides. Even the closest race (in their minds) in Virginia is 53.1 O v. 46.8 R.

For the rest it is no contest.

Obama's next smallest advantage is in Colorado (58.4). He is ahead in 10, by 91.5% in Minnesota and by 85% or better in MIchigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Romney's two apparent winners are Florida and North Carolina, and possibly also by landslides. N.C. is at 82.5. Florida 70.1.

Intraders are similarly treating 10 select close Senate races as runaways, 7 for the Democrats and 3 for the Republicans.


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