Forecast:?Rain to be scant for rest of ’08

WAILUKU - The shower band that dropped 0.13 inches of rain in Kahului on Thursday may have helped to cut the dust, but it did little to relieve ongoing drought conditions over most of Maui County.

The National Weather Service Honolulu office released a monthly Drought Information Statement on Thursday noting that the drought continues to worsen for agricultural areas of the state. The statement also reported that the national Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below-normal rainfall through December.

Expressing optimism over the rainfall that has occurred over the past month, Maui County Water Director Jeff Eng said the department is continuing its appeal for voluntary conservation: 10 per-

cent on the Central Maui system and 5 percent on the Upcountry system.

He said he regularly reviews the data issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. The data can be found online at www.cpc. ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxhw40.html.

"I was just looking at the data, and they're indicating a 45 percent chance it will be below normal through October and December," he said.

That would be with Kahului already at 26 percent of normal rainfall for the year.

Earlier this year, he said, the center issued the same forecast of a 40 percent to 45 percent chance of below-normal rainfall.

"We are always going to be cautious, and we'll see what we need to do to adjust the Upcountry system," Eng said. "It's a nice time now, but we'll be prepared to make adjustments."

With regular trade winds, the watersheds in West Maui and East Maui recorded nearly normal rainfall in July, with periodic trade showers continuing through August. In July, the West Wailua Iki rain gauge recorded 14.24 inches in the East Maui watershed, while the Puu Kukui gauge in West Maui recorded 26.67 inches.

Through the past week, there have been sporadic showers that have maintained flows in the streams that supply the Upcountry water system, with the Wailoa Ditch peaking at 189.3 million gallons a day Aug. 14.

"A few days ago, it was like ideal. The ditch flows were up, the reservoirs were full, demand was fine," he said. "I thought it was perfect, but how long can this last?"

On Aug. 14, when rainfall was restoring the watershed, the Upcountry reservoirs held 165.4 million gallons, and demand on the system was 7.1 mgd. On Wednesday, the Wailoa Ditch had dropped to 60.4 mgd, reservoir levels were down to 149.7 mg, and demand soared to 9 mgd.

The rainfall Thursday at least should help to reduce the demand for water used to irrigate lawns, Eng said.

The long-term outlook was less positive, with the weather service noting that trade showers have helped to ease drought conditions - but only to move windward areas out of drought to abnormally dry.

The south-central section of Maui - Kihei-Maalaea - is rated in extreme drought, while other areas of Central Maui and Kula are rated in severe drought. Lanai was moved from abnormally dry into the moderate drought category.

West Molokai is rated in severe drought, and farmers on the Molokai Irrigation System remain under a mandatory 20 percent cutback on their water use.

While trade showers should ease the drought conditions on windward areas, the weather service said, "The outlook also keeps the below-normal rainfall forecast through December, which is deep into the normal wet season."

* Edwin Tanji can be reached at citydesk@mauinews.com.