Twenty years and 10 months ago, the stock market closed Friday on a scary note, and America expected the worst on Monday. In Wailuku, stockbroker Greg Chou came in early, and before the sun rose in Hawaii, the market spiraled down and down.
Last Friday, the stock market closed on a scary note. But on Monday was calm at Chou's offices at Morgan Stanley.
Another time that Mauians tensed up under the effects of events far away came after Sept. 11, 2001. Airports were closed for days, tourism came almost to a halt.
Jerry Kunitomo, then manager and now owner of BJ's Chicago Pizzeria on Front Street, saw his business ebb away seven years ago.
In 2008, even before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings over the weekend, Kunitomo's receipts were tumbling, to 10 percent below even where they were in the week after 9/11.
The turmoil on Wall Street in the past five days was an episode, not a novelty like the market crash in October 1987. Already, developers who needed to borrow construction financing were finding it difficult or impossible. Everett Dowling said a month ago that money, if you could find it at all, cost more - and lenders were not ready to assume more than half the venture. A year ago, they might have been willing to take on 75 percent.
One result of the Lehman bankruptcy, said Steve Goodfellow of Goodfellow Brothers, is that suddenly, "It's worse."
Each proposed development is "unique and individual," he said Tuesday, and each developing company is individual, so not every idea is impossible.
But more projects are out of reach today than even last Thursday.
It already was bad.
"Unfortunately, in the last nine months, we have had to lay off more than 100 people," Goodfellow said.
In Honolulu, Gov. Linda Lingle took a break from nonstop telephone meetings with people in New York, Hawaii and on the West Coast to say that the state has received jolts from outside before. In the short term, she said, the shock waves from Wall Street will affect Hawaii, and especially tourism.
However, she expects that when "the uproar on Wall Street" dies down, perhaps within 60 days, and the nation "returns to a more regular pace," so will Hawaii.
She has two immediate concerns. One is keeping Hawaii in the minds of people who may take a vacation someday, even if they are jittery about taking one now.
That's because of the airline seats issue. Hawaii was slammed in April when Aloha and ATA airlines shut down. There has been a little recovery since, Lingle said. For example, Delta has announced plans to grow, and when Alaska Airlines announced plans to cut routes, it exempted Hawaii.
"If we don't build a demand now, it's hard to get those seats back. We need to keep those seats."
Therefore, Lingle said, it is important for Hawaii to keep pushing itself, even if there is every expectation that tourism will slow even further because of the Wall Street shakes.
This is understandable, she said, even if emotional.
"Certainly, in the short term, people who are about to go on a vacation will be affected psychologically when they see their 401(k) statement and see the value of their holdings beginning to decline."
They will recover, Lingle said, and now is the time for Hawaii to get out the message that a vacation here is not expensive. With airline and hotel deals, it should be a bargain.
So rather than waiting for emotions to calm before pressing forward with marketing, she said, the islands need to get their message out now.
"Unfortunately, the Hawaii Tourism Authority cannot move that fast," Lingle said, but hotels can.
She said Hawaii needs to get its statement out not just in sales mode but also as a public relations message.
The other thing she worries about, apart from the immediate impact, is that a declining economy (or other factors) is pushing down the price of oil.
While that is welcome news in itself, Lingle is concerned that there will be a tendency to lose focus on the hunt for alternative, local sources of energy. "That would be a huge mistake," she said.
State Tourism Liaison Marsha Wienert said the falling price of oil, although obscured by the falling value of Lehman Brothers stock, "is a good thing."
Although she has not spoken with airline executives since the fall of Lehman - she has been busy talking to hotel people - she said she had been told earlier that airlines were planning for oil at $120 a barrel, so anything less should be a boost. Oil on Tuesday was trading at between $92.75 and $94.50.
She expects that tourism will be immediately hit "because of perceptions" that times are bad. In talking to resort managers, "all of them have seen an impact" since Friday. "We will have to wait and see. Tourism is affected by so many uncontrollable things from outside."
That's how Kunitomo sees it. BJ's Chicago Pizzeria opened 14 years ago, and since then its volume has doubled.
When the original owners decided to "go national," Kunitomo took the opportunity to keep the name but strike out on his own.
Is he better off alone in today's conditions, or tied to but supported by a larger organization? "That's a great question," he said. "Put it to the operator: How much courage have you got?
"At the end of the day, you want to control your own destiny."
After having worked for 15 years in California, Kunitomo is content to be playing out his destiny here. "Maui is a very, very rare place. Community presence is a great equalizer."
During his time on Front Street, he has served on 20 to 30 committees for local events and programs. On Tuesday, he said the current crisis reminds him of something that Eddie Kamae told him when they were working on the Festival of Canoes.
"He said to me, 'Do you know the difference between Oahu and Maui? If you want to do something on Oahu, people ask, "How much?" If you want to do something on Maui, people come out and help.'"
Goodfellow said that's true in his line of work, too. Goodfellow Brothers is often cited for contributing equipment and skilled operators when wildfires break out.
"It's very, very expensive, but in a good economy, it's easier to do things," he said Tuesday.
Right now, he is forced to cut back and cut back, because his first concern is to "have a healthy company at the end of the downturn. We have to do what is needed to keep the company healthy," even if that means layoffs.
Wienert said the visitor industry is in the same position.
"The first thing you do is cut hours, that's the easiest thing to do; then mandatory vacations. No one wants to lay off anyone."
However, Wienert said, "People have been laid off on all of the islands."
* Harry Eagar can be reached at heagar@mauinews.com.
