KAHULUI - In his annual economic updates, professor Leroy Laney always includes two graphs about employment - the total employment number and the unemployment number.
"Sometimes they give conflicting signals," he said Friday. But usually, "the job count is the better indicator."
The numbers are in synch now: The net number of jobs created in Maui County this year is estimated to be zero. The unemployment rate is climbing toward an estimated 4.5 percent by year's end, nearly double where it was a year ago.
Maui's jobless rate is also higher than the statewide rate, which is estimated to finish at 3.8 percent this year.
Over time, Oahu has usually had the lowest jobless rate in the state, thanks to the relative stability of government employment, but in recent years Maui island has had even lower jobless rates.
There are at least two factors to add uncertainty to the unemployment number.
First, said Laney, it is based on a small survey of only 500 to 600 households.
Second, it does not catch employment losses for people who have multiple jobs.
If a Maui worker has a primary job and another, on-call or casual job, and he stops being called in, his income will go down, but he won't show up in the unemployment statistics.
The job count is a much bigger sample, since it counts jobs instead of people. One Mauian who has a regular job as a restaurant waiter and who counts on occasional calls to serve banquets will be counted twice in the job count.
So that number does not show how many people are working, or how well they are doing. But the fluctuations in the job count do show whether the economy is expanding or contracting.
Job numbers have expanded in Maui County every year for a decade except 2002. The decrease began in late 2001 and was caused by the economic fallout from the 9/11 attacks.
By 2003, job creation was above 2 percent, and it reached nearly 4 percent in 2004.
Job creation continued, although the rate of growth began dropping in 2007, one reason that Maui's economy and particularly the visitor industry were expecting only slow growth this year even before the unpredicted shockwaves began hitting our shores.
There were numerous events that led to job losses, such as the failure of Aloha Airlines, the closing of Maui Pineapple's cannery, other cutbacks by Maui Land & Pine, and the shutdown of Molokai Ranch. There were also job creators, including the opening of several consumer businesses, such as Zippy's.
But the losses in 2008 are calculated to equal any gains.
* Harry Eagar can be reached at heagar@mauinews.com.
