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WAILUKU - The Maui Planning Commission dipped its toes into the rough waters of general land use planning for the next 20 years Tuesday, getting a philosophical overview of the Maui Island Plan from Dave Michaelson of the Planning Department's Long Range Planning Division.

It's about more than zoning, Michaelson said.

"You make social decisions about who's going to be able to stay on this island" when you establish land use policies, he said.

The commission has 180 days to review, refine and send its version of the Maui Island Plan to the County Council. The council will then meld the island plans being reviewed by the Molokai and Lanai planning commissions into an ordinance to manage growth for the next two decades - and, if Michaelson gets his way, for generations to come.

It's a new approach to planning, he said, citing his mentor, Ian McHarg, and other academic experts behind the "New Urbanism." And some of the ways the county does business will be changed "radically" if all the ideas in the Maui Island Plan are also endorsed by the commission.

The New Urbanism concept designs communities around people rather than cars and encourages mixed-use development rather than separating different kinds of uses through zoning.

The plan already reflects the input of the General Plan Advisory Committee and of Planning Director Jeff Hunt and his staff of New Urbanists.

Commissioner Kent Hiranaga listened to more than an hour of exposition and asked, "Are there opposing opinions?" about New Urbanism.

The main ideas are now accepted "almost universally" among professional planners, Michaelson said, but land-use codes have run into opposition from developers, he said, if they have been understood as "growth management tools."

Some communities that don't want growth "hide behind" New Urbanism "because they are not willing to accept growth caps," Michaelson said.

The Maui Planning Department is not against growth, he said, adding that growth comes whether it is wanted or not, and the community needs to plan for how to deal with it.

He suggested, however, that the county's previous general plans have worked well for offshore buyers of Maui real estate but not so well for people who live here. An awakening moment for him, he said, came at a meeting with Baldwin High School students.

He asked how many were born here, and about 85 percent raised their hands. He then asked how many would like to keep living here, and about the same percentage raised their hands. But when he asked how many expected to be living on Maui in 10 years, only a few hands went up.

There will be plenty of opportunities for developers to build if the planners' growth projections are right. Based on Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism projections that population will grow by 1.5 percent per year, by 2030 Maui will need about 84,000 dwellings - nearly twice as many as it has now.

If the long-range planners get their way, those will be built closer together than Mauians have been accustomed to.

That's the concept of urban growth boundaries: growth moves up rather than out. More walking, less driving.

"We'll never turn Maui back to an agrarian society," Michaelson said, but planning can help put "hard edges" on communities, so that they retain their individual identities.

He also warned that "concurrency" in providing infrastructure should be a key consideration. Unlike previous proposed plans, this one will include costs.

"You will be given numbers of what it's going to cost to implement the plan" in terms of capital projects, Michaelson told commissioners.

"In some cases, the numbers, quite frankly, are astonishing."

To meet the county ordinance that gives just 180 days to report, the commission intends to hold all-day meetings on two Tuesdays per month into September. On other Tuesdays, the commission will hold its regular meetings.

Half the meetings will be in the Planning Department conference room, half will be held at locations around the island. The meetings out in the communities will generally run from 1:30 to 8 p.m. (although the department will retain some flexibility in scheduling).

The next meeting will be from 1:30 to 8 p.m. May 5 at the Haiku Community Center.

It will address issues of population and heritage resources.

* Harry Eagar can be reached at heagar@mauinews.com.