In Annandale, Minn., in the lake country about 50 miles west of Minneapolis, Bud Garthe is keeping a close eye on Maui's economy. He wants to buy a restaurant here. But he's nervous about the prospects of recovery.
Last year, he was seriously interested in a saloon in Paia. It's a business he knows. After months of investigating, and even after the owner lowered his asking price, Garthe decided the numbers didn't work.
But he didn't give up on Maui. He has probably given up, though, on free-spending tourists.
In an e-mail recently, he wrote: "I have switched gears from whiskey and sushi to ice cream, pizza, and burgers . . . Nowadays people only want to spend 5 bucks rather than 20."
In a telephone interview from his home - "It's just as hot here as it is there today," he noted - he expanded on that thought.
He owns several bars and restaurants, where he used to hope to get diners to spend at least $20 to $25.
"People are not going out that much any more, but I notice at the Dairy Queen, you can't get in there," he said.
Garthe is working with a Maui broker, thinking about a place for sale in Makawao, but he hasn't quite made up his mind. He still wants to crunch the numbers some more.
One thing puzzles him. In Minnesota, he sells drinks for $3.25, which includes 6.5 percent sales tax and a 9 percent liquor tax. On Maui, drinks go for $5 or $6, with only 4 percent general excise tax. He's studying where that other money goes.
But he looks at the Upcountry area and sees at least 15,000 people with few opportunities to go out for a good, inexpensive snack.
Garthe started out in the restaurant business 37 years ago, when he was still a teenager, and in 1981 started a frozen pizza company. He built that up into a business that grossed $15 million, but a divorce forced him to start over in 1995.
"After that business went south, I started buying distressed restaurants," he said.
By following his own business principle - "Nothing happens till you make the sale" - he rebuilt those businesses and said they are "all still thriving." In 2007, he opened the first smoke-free restaurant in his hometown.
Now, he's at an age when he's thinking of changing his lifestyle. He visited Maui last year and loved it. "Except Kahului, too congested," he said.
Garthe hasn't visited the place he's thinking of buying yet, but he hears that the pizza is "real good." If he can persuade himself that the financial figures make it reasonable to expect to be profitable, he's ready to move to Maui.
And, yes, when he was here last year, he saw the bumper sticker that said: "Welcome to Maui. Now go home."
He thought that was strange.
