WAILUKU - New forecasts predicting slower population growth on Maui over the next 20 years have led the county Planning Department to reduce its recommendation for new housing units in the Maui Island Plan.
The department is now recommending enough land be set aside to provide between 11,600 and 11,750 new homes by the year 2030. An earlier proposal for the Maui Island Plan recommended creating 14,181 homes to meet demand.
Planning Director Jeff Hunt said the new, lower population estimates were released by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism about 10 days ago. County planners presented their new recommendations to the Maui Planning Commission on Tuesday.
The Maui Island Plan, which has been in the works for several years and is being reviewed by the planning commission, outlines growth on the island through the year 2030. In addition to written recommendations for how growth and infrastructure projects should proceed, it includes maps drawn with "urban-growth areas" outlining where dense development can occur. The boundaries are meant to make it easier for developers to build in those designated areas and sharply restrict their ability to build outside them.
The planning commission is required to complete its recommendations on the plan by Oct. 15. The Maui County Council would then have one year to review the plan and make it law.
In its first day of deliberations on the plan maps Tuesday, the planning commission discussed future growth in Maui's north shore area.
The commission endorsed the Planning Department's recommendation to locate a 46-acre growth area above Paia town along the west side of Baldwin Avenue, adding about 200 new homes to the area.
But commissioners also voted to add a 50-acre "country town" growth area to expand Kuau, which would generate around 210 additional homes.
A&B Properties Vice President Grant Chun had testified earlier at the meeting asking for the area just mauka of Kuau Bayview to be considered for future growth.
County planners said they recommended locating development closer to Paia town, to reduce traffic. But several planning commissioners who live in the area noted Kuau was within easy walking distance of Paia, and felt the distance wouldn't make a difference.
Commissioner Bruce U'u said it takes his family 10 minutes to make the walk, "pushing a stroller," and felt it was actually safer than walking from upper Paia down Baldwin Avenue, because of new sidewalks in the Kuau area.
"It's a very short walk," he said.
Commissioner Kent Hiranaga said he was supportive of the Kuau growth area, because owner A&B was clearly interested in developing it.
But setting aside land for additional growth in Kuau would mean Paia will have more than twice as many potential housing units as it needs under current projections.
Rather than reducing development in upper Paia to offset the additional units in Kuau, Commissioner Ward Mardfin favored leaving both developments in the plan.
"If they're both in there, it would go to the community plan, and they could decide which they wanted," he said.
But Commissioner Jonathan Starr strongly disagreed with the idea of planning more housing for the area than was needed, and kicking the responsibility for making a decision down the road.
"This kitchen-sink policy of 'just throw it in,' that's how you end up with sprawl," he said. "We're building Kihei in Paia."
Hunt said commissioners shouldn't worry about meeting housing demand estimates exactly, but should try to target that number. He said planners could live with an extra 200 units in Paia, especially if an equivalent number of homes were deducted from another area.
"We hope at the end of the day the balance between supply and demand is close," he said.
* Ilima Loomis can be reached at iloomis@mauinews.com.
