The predicted slow revival of the visitor industry shows up in the hotel occupancy numbers for the first month of the year.
Maui's rate jumped to 67.5 percent in January from 59.8 percent in the same month last year. For the state as a whole, occupancy rose from 63.1 to 66.5 percent.
The numbers are far from sparkling compared with most Januaries, and they came at the expense of heavy discounting in the prime part of the year, but they are up. Furthermore, occupancy rates have increased in four of the past five months.
The statistics are compiled by Smith Travel Research for Hospitality Advisors.
Maui Visitors Bureau Executive Director Terryl Vencl said the numbers show "what a great time for consumers this is. Maui is a great value."
She said the gains were in line with the modest increase in visitor numbers, and she hopes that the two signals mean Maui's visitor industry is heading "toward stabilization."
Hospitality Advisors President Joseph Toy said: "Preliminary February results also appear stronger than the prior year. He noted the deep discounting, but said "the recovery in demand is good news for Hawaii's beleaguered hotel industry, and we expect to see the trend strengthen during the longer summer season."
He also provided figures to "show that Hawaii has been able to retain its competitive market position during this extraordinary global industry downturn."
Among "comparable international destinations," Hawaii has the highest average daily rate even with discounting, $177. Second-place Singapore, $167, discounted at almost twice the rate that Hawaii hoteliers did in 2009.
Maui is now regaining its accustomed place as leader among the Neighbor Islands.
Since the closure of Aloha and ATA airlines in March 2008, and other gloomy financial and economic developments, the Neighbor Islands have led Oahu down, and Maui for most of that period was doing worse than Kauai or Hawaii counties, relatively.
At least for January, Maui rebounded while Kauai and Hawaii remained stuck. The Big Island's occupancy rate for January was 53.2 percent, down from 55.2 percent; and Kauai's was 54.3 percent, down from 56.5 percent.
Those counties were discounting (but not at the rate Maui operators were) around 2 percent for Kauai and 7 percent for the Big Island. Maui prices are down around 18 percent, dropping from $276 in January 2009 to $229 this January.
"I just don't see any signs that room rates are going to go back up to what they were," Vencl said.
Prices will stay low; Maui will be a bargain: "That's the message," she said.
Oahu has been following a different path. It's occupancy has topped 70 percent - again, not wonderful compared with past years, at the expense of modest discounting of around 7 percent.
Oahu's occupancy rate was 72.1 percent in January, up from 68.2 percent in the same month in 2009.
This must have been largely due to cheaper places in Waikiki, because the other four prices classes - economy, midprice, upscale and luxury - were all around two-thirds occupied. Budget, the cheapest, soared to 78.3 percent. Maui does not have any budget rooms that participate in the voluntary survey.
The bottom line is revenue per available room figure, and Maui fell from $165 to $154. Oahu fell only from $111 to $108, but Hawaii County was down from $111 to $100 and Kauai from $112 to $105.
There was not much difference in occupancy rates among regions of Maui: Wailea was at 67.2 percent, West Maui at 66.1 percent, the rest of the island at 69.1 percent. Those rates are all higher - by 2.7 to 8.4 percentage points - than the previous January.
West Maui discounting was the most extreme, at about 20 percent off. The average daily rate there was $208, down from $251 in January 2009 and well below this January's $252 of "other Maui" and far below the $362 of Wailea.
When compared with other international destinations, Hawaii ranked fifth in occupancy ranking last year. South Korea, doing better economically than most countries, saw its occupancy grow 1.6 percent to a rate of 76 percent. Hawaii was bracketed by New Zealand, 67.2 percent, and the Caribbean, 61.6 percent.
Hawaii ranked second in revenue per available room at $117 in 2009. Singapore was first, $122, but that was off 27.4 percent, compared with a fall of 17.5 percent for Hawaii.
Almost every other top destination experienced falls even greater, proportionately, than Hawaii's, with South Korea, again, the exception. Its fall was only 9.1 percent at the end of 2009, which made it the third most prosperous place to be in the hotel business last year.
Mexico was suffering the most, with occupancy of only 50.6 percent in 2009 and a revenue per available room of $50, which was lower even than China's $53.
Among island destinations, Maui ranked third in room revenue, behind the Cayman Islands and the most expensive resort destination of all, the Maldives, at $404.
However, the Maldives attracts a tiny number of tourists compared with Maui.
* Harry Eagar can be reached at heagar@mauinews.com.
