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Omicron suspected on Maui as spread outpaces detection

DOH: Variant moving too quickly to know how prevalent it is

State Laboratories Division Administrator Dr. Edward Desmond discusses the spread of the omicron variant in Hawaii during a news conference on Wednesday. The Department of Health reported another 24 cases of the variant, bringing the total confirmed in Hawaii to 74. All have been on Oahu, though two specimens from Maui have molecular clues indicating they may be omicron. The Maui News / COLLEEN UECHI photo

Health officials confirmed 24 more cases of the omicron variant in Hawaii — with another two suspected cases on Maui — though they acknowledged that the variant may be moving too quickly to get a real-time picture of how widespread it is.

“The information that we have is really probably behind what’s going on on the ground,” State Laboratories Division Administrator Dr. Edward Desmond said during a news conference on Wednesday afternoon. “There’s every reason to expect that it’s likely very widespread at this point already.”

Since the first known case of the omicron variant was detected on Oahu on Dec. 2, there have been a total of 74 cases confirmed, all on Oahu. However, four specimens from Hawaii island and two from Maui contain a molecular clue indicating they are likely omicron, the state Department of Health said Wednesday. Whole genome sequencing to confirm whether the cases are omicron will likely be completed Sunday, Desmond said.

The probable presence of the omicron variant on Neighbor Islands is not a surprise, Desmond said, as health officials have been warning for weeks that the variant was likely spreading throughout the state as cases began to skyrocket this month.

Hawaii was averaging 726 new daily cases as of Wednesday, more than seven times the 101.4 cases a day the state was averaging as of Dec. 7, Health Department data show. Oahu has seen the bulk of the surge, with 661 new cases a day, more than 10 times its average of 60.6 cases a day as of Dec. 7. Maui County, meanwhile, is averaging the second most in the state at 33 cases a day, nearly double the 16.1 cases it was averaging as of Dec. 7.

The Health Department has attributed the surge to holiday gatherings and travel, as well as a combination of the highly contagious delta variant that fueled a wave over the summer and the recently introduced omicron variant that’s quickly sent cases in climbing in other countries where it’s been detected.

Maui County reported 61 new cases on Wednesday, with 58 on Maui, two on Lanai and one on Molokai. When asked when Maui might crack triple-digit cases, Desmond said “that’s hard to predict.” Observations of the omicron variant worldwide have noted that it tends to double every two to three days, and given the increase in cases, it’s likely already or about to become the predominant variant in Hawaii, Desmond said.

The latest 24 omicron cases come from specimens collected from Dec. 7 to 13, the Health Department said. Because there are so many positive cases, the State Laboratories Division is unable to do genome sequencing on all of them to determine how many are omicron, Desmond said. However, the state tries to take a representative sample to get an idea of how prevalent the variant may be. It also tries to collect specimens from the Neighbor Islands that have the molecular clue of the omicron variant. Because the process takes awhile, any resulting data will likely be “a couple of weeks behind reality,” Desmond said.

“One of the main differences (between delta and omicron) is really the speed with which it spreads,” Kauai District Health Officer Dr. Janet Berreman said during the news conference. “And given that it takes time to do whole genome sequencing once you get the samples, and takes time to get the samples to the lab, what we’re seeing is the epidemiology of the omicron variant is ahead of our ability to confirm it in laboratories.”

Berreman said that the state “is doing a high percentage whole genome sequencing by national standards,” but because omicron spreads so quickly, “we can’t keep up with it in real time.”

“So in saying that we assume that omicron is likely spreading widely already in our communities, we say that based on the fact that we’ve detected these cases here and that we are seeing exponential growth so widely in our state,” she added.

Whether the spike in cases overwhelms local hospitals will depend on how busy facilities already are as well as on the severity of the cases, Berreman said.

“It appears that omicron causes less severe disease, but as it infects so many more people so rapidly, that certainly is something that all of us are keeping an eye on statewide,” Berreman said during the news conference.

“We’re still using the term ‘flattening the curve,'” she added. “I don’t know that we can really flatten this curve given how quickly it’s rising, but we can at least slow that down a little bit, and the most important things are, first, if you are eligible for a booster and you have not had it, please go out and get it today, tomorrow — don’t put it off any longer.”

Though increasingly difficult, contract tracing is still key, Berreman said, as some people may have been exposed and not know it. Health officials focus especially on high-risk settings, such as long-term care facilities, schools, bars and nightclubs. However, as cases increase, the department may not be able to reach everyone who’s been exposed.

Health Department spokesperson Brooks Baehr said that people shouldn’t wait to be contacted by the department if they test positive. Instead, they should quarantine immediately and notify close contacts so they can isolate and get tested.

* Colleen Uechi can be reached at cuechi@mauinews.com.

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