Drought could return over summer

Below-average rainfall in the forecast for coming months

Portions of Maui County could experience severe drought and possibly extreme drought by the time the dry season ends in September, a weather official said Thursday.

Conditions are "not looking good in terms of rainfall," Kevin Kodama, senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service, said Thursday during a news conference that primarily focused on the hurricane season outlook.

He said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below-average precipitation through the dry season, this month though September and into the wet season.

The highest likelihood for severe drought and possibly extreme drought is in the leeward areas, especially in Maui County and on Hawaii island.

He added that the impacts are expected to be the worst for nonirrigated agriculture, areas with water systems dependent on surface water diversions such as Upcountry and West Maui and residents relying on rainfall catchment.

"I would say that even though (water) supplies may be adequate now, it wouldn't hurt to start conserving to ensure adequate supplies later on,"Kodama said in an email after the news conference.

While below-average dry season precipitation is not typical for the summer months of an El Nino onset year such as this, it has happened in the past, Kodama said, pointing to the example of 2009, which was the state's ninth-driest season in 30 years.

"The concern here is that if our dry season has below average rainfall, we may not see any relief during the upcoming wet season because the El Nino will likely result in below average rainfall into 2024 as well,"Kodama explained.

Because there was late rainfall during the wet season that just finished, the significant wildfire risk is expected to develop later than the normal in the late-July to early-August time frame, Kodama said.

The October 2022 through April 2023 wet season began with severe or extreme drought in portions of all four counties statewide.

October and November saw a slow start to the wet season with near- to below-average rain totals. There were wet conditions with cold fronts in mid-December then it was dry from late December through mid-January.

But from February through April, there was near- to above-average rainfall at many locations, with all drought in the state eliminated by mid-February.

Localized drought briefly returned to Maui and Hawaii island in April and early May.

On Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated that only the northern portion of Hawaii island was experiencing "abnormally dry"conditions as compared to the rest of the state.

During the wet season, Maui County rainfall totals were mostly 90 to 120 percent of the average.

The rain gauge at the Kahului Airport saw 13.96 inches of rain during this past wet season, which was the 13th wettest.

Molokai's airport rain gauge saw 25.68 inches of rain, which is the second wettest on record, according to NOAA.

* Melissa Tanji can be reached at mtanji@mauinews.com.