The U.S. Drought Monitor for Hawaii shows dry conditions in Hawaii. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the wet season could ease, if not eliminate, the drought conditions for many parts of the state if predictions hold true. Photo courtesy

While the 2024-25 dry season ranked as the third driest in the last 30 years for the Hawaiian islands, there could be some relief on the horizon, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

NOAA recently released its wet season rainfall outlook for Hawaii.

NOAA warned that precipitation totals are difficult to predict over the course of weeks or months, and there are no guarantees with its long-range forecasts. However, looking at the forecast for the weather season, which runs from October through April, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects La Nina conditions, which emerged in September 2025, to continue through at least January or February.

Probabilities favor a weak La Nina event, which has generally produced above normal rainfall during the winter months in Hawaii since the 1980s.

A weak La Nina event also brings the potential for more weather systems capable of producing widespread significant rainfall. However, NOAA says that weak La Nina events do not necessarily result in Hawaii’s wettest wet seasons, either.

Moderate to strong La Nina events have generally favored below normal rainfall, with greater trade wind frequency focusing rain on windward slopes.

Across the state, drought conditions have changed little in terms of coverage through the dry season with around 70% of the state affected.

In Maui County, the drought has been severe for many parts of the county with the Upcountry area recently being put into a Stage 3 drought declaration.

If the rainfall forecast comes to fruition, NOAA says it expects the drought conditions across the state to be significantly improved, if not be eliminated, in many areas by the end of the wet season.

As reminders for the wet season, NOAA is cautioning residents to:

â–� Avoid driving on roads with fast-flowing water.

â–� Not to walk across flooded streams.

â–� Expect rainy weather impacts.

â–� The wet season brings increased potential for lightning strikes.

â–� If you live in a flood-prone area, have an evacuation plan in case flood waters quickly threaten

your home.

â–� Stay informed of rapidly-changing conditions