Several recent reports are showing that tourism numbers are slowly coming back and revenue through tourism is as well. If you ask the average person if they think tourism numbers are increasing, you’re likely to get the response that it is slow. Like really slow.

A trip to any of the airports in the islands right now will tell you as much. It’s that time of year when everyone is going back to school and summer vacation is over. With the end of the busy summer season, we are heading into the fall tourism season when numbers are traditionally strong.

According to the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) preliminary visitor statistics for July, “total visitor arrivals (to Hawai’i) declined slightly but total visitor spending in July 2024 increased compared to July 2023. There were 925,935 visitors to the Hawaiian Islands in July 2024, down 1.0% from the same month last year. Total visitor spending measured in nominal dollars was $2.07 billion, a growth of 2.6% from July 2023.”

The DBEDT statistics showed there were 237,495 visitors to Maui in July 2024. That’s a significant decrease from the 297,082 visitors (-20.1%) that came to Maui in July 2023 and 307,834 visitors (-22.8%) in July 2019.

Visitor spending on Maui accounted for $510.6 million in July 2024, compared to $622.2 million (-17.9%) in July 2023 and $506.0 million (+0.9%) in July 2019. The average daily census on Maui was 58,094 visitors in July 2024, compared to 73,393 visitors (-20.8%) in July 2023 and 76,557 visitors (-24.1%) in July 2019.

The statistics showed that in the first seven months of 2024, there were 1,369,728 visitors to Maui, compared to 1,793,756 visitors (-23.6%) in the first seven months of 2023 and 1,830,367 visitors (-25.2%) in the first seven months of 2019. For the first seven months of 2024, total visitor spending on Maui was $3.15 billion, compared to $4.17 billion (-24.4%) in the first seven months of 2023 and $3.11 billion (+1.2%) in the first seven months of 2019.

The numbers can be confusing and that’s why they are preliminary statistics. The fact of the matter is that tourism is the number one economic driver in the state at the moment. As visitor numbers begin to fall, local businesses and families will feel the loss of revenue as it plays out. Visitor spending is a key resource to driving the economy in Hawaii, but it is surely not the only driver.

As counties in Hawaii begin to shift away from industrial tourism in favor of finding housing for local people, we are likely to see tourism numbers begin to fall. That’s not necessarily a bad thing if you ask some people and there is a prevailing ideology that overtourism has been toxic to the state.

We have to be prepared for the shift that is taking place and as long as other economic drivers are put in place, the loss of tourism numbers will not be felt as much. It will be interesting to see how this plays out through the coming months into the end of the year in Maui and the state and for now we have a small respite from overtourism, but not much.