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Health experts are calling it a "hidden wave."
They know COVID-19 is surging, but due to the burgeoning use of home test kits and changes in the way data is collected and reported, nobody is certain how many infections there are on in America, let alone Wailuku. Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb recently estimated that only "one in seven or one in eight" COVID-19 infections are officially logged.
So when the New York Times reports Hawaii leads the country in infection rates, with cases rising 56 percent over the last two weeks, it begs the question: What are the real numbers? The Times has the state averaging 71 cases per 100,000 people. Gottlieb's multiplier of eight would mean Hawaii and its population of 1.4 million is currently averaging about 8,000 new cases a day.
Those numbers are impossible to quantify, but anecdotally, the disease does seem to be hitting closer to home. Most of us know neighbors, friends or family who have recently tested positive. We contracted COVID-19 earlier this month; that's pretty close to home.
Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 spreads more rapidly than all previous versions of the disease. Vaccines, boosters and previous infection may stave off serious illness, but breakthrough cases with BA.2.12.1 are becoming commonplace. We were vaccinated and boosted. Maybe that is why our symptoms were relatively mild. We have had flu bugs that were worse.
Can you imagine if these were the numbers in May of 2020? Roads and beaches would be closed, passenger jets grounded. And our hospitals would likely be overwhelmed. It is important to remember we were dealing with more deadly variants back then. There were no vaccines or proven treatments. Everybody was learning as they went along.
Fast forward to this pandemic's third Memorial Day Weekend. Maui is on the cusp of what is expected to be a very busy summer tourist season. Workers are calling in sick all over the island. Hospitalizations are on the rise. A weary public is tired of COVID-19 curtailing social activities.
Our government leaders have learned that strict pandemic restrictions are political and economic losers. We can expect reminders to wear masks indoors and to limit exposure, but the days of requiring testing or proof of vaccination for airport arrivals seem to be behind us.
In Hawaii, we're taught to never turn our backs on a wave. It is up to us as individuals to decide how we hope to ride this "hidden" swell. Some folks will charge hard and some will take precautions like wearing masks in stores, businesses and airports. It will also be up to us to protect others by isolating if we test positive or feel sick.
This Memorial Day weekend it's fair to wonder how the heroes we honor would have ridden this wave. Our guess is they would pull together for the good of all.