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What makes the 20th anniversary of a tragedy more newsworthy than the 19th we cannot say, but there is no denying journalists have a penchant for round numbers.
We go full bore covering the first anniversary and maybe the second, then the stories grow shorter and the headlines lower on the page. As the 10th approaches, an editor decides it is time to revisit the historic event. We interview eyewitnesses and explore what has transpired in the ensuing years. The topic is dissected and laid bare, then put on a shelf until the next round number year rolls through.
That got us wondering how the Lahaina fire of 2023 will be covered in the decades to come. What will be on the minds of survivors in 10 years? Will they be pleased with the way their harbor town has been rebuilt? Or still fighting to secure loans and collect on insurance claims? What will be the consensus in 50 years?
An optimist looking ahead to Aug. 8, 2033 could foresee banner headlines reading: "Opening of new Lahaina trolley completes rebuild" or "Local people moving back in droves." For the pessimist: "Cost overruns and infighting extend delays" and "Lahaina has lost its soul."
Ten years may sound like a long time, but there will be no quick fixes to Lahaina's woes. Allowing for a cleanup that is expected to take up to two years, infrastructure buildout, lawsuits, permitting and construction delays -- we will not be surprised if Lahaina and many of its people are still picking up the pieces in 2033.
Optimistic headlines in 2043 might read: "Lahaina civic design wins another award" or "Hawaiian culture and tourism in harmony." On the reverse side of the coin: "Rising seas destroy new waterfront" and "Collapse of tourism dooms economy."
With 20 years gone by, it seems fair to assume Lahaina will have become its new self. What that looks like is anybody's guess. Downtown could resemble a mileslong Pioneer Inn or be a whittled-down concrete and glass replica of Miami Beach. Equally difficult to predict are the state of the world's economy, climate and availability of resources. Air travel is a key driver of manmade climate change. What if high tariffs put a trip to Hawaii out of reach for all but the uber wealthy? What if folks flock here to escape the heat? Maui could have 15 million visitors a year by 2043, or 15,000.
As for headlines 30 years from now, we'll leave those to future journalists. Rising seas will likely be one of the topics they are following, as well as Maui's other perennial storylines of homelessness and the struggle to balance indigenous rights within a modern economy. Running alongside those will be contemporary headline grabbers we can only imagine.
The fire may have dealt Lahaina a devastating blow, but its tale is far from finished.