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Maui will see a severe reduction in transient accommodations taxes. Tourism numbers, also, will likely fall.
Will vacationers book Maui hotels instead? Some, but likely not many. High nightly hotel rates will lead to booking on another Hawaiian island, one that still permits short-term rentals.
Will owners of Maui's short-term rentals convert to long-term rentals? Many owners own in order to live some months on Maui: another source of tax revenue. Thus, it's not possible to rent their condos for long-term use. Many STR owners will leave their condos vacant when off island.
I checked the HOA fees on many of West Maui's currently permitted STRs: it's $1000 to $1600 per month. These fees will need to be covered in monthly long-term rental rates. Can local families afford this?
Regarding affordable housing: The county stifled developers before the fire. Developers pleaded that taxpayers should subsidize affordable housing. Very few desperately-needed housing projects ever moved forward because of these issues.
Particularly troubling, the owners of the recently built four-story Lahaina affordable apartment building that burnt down on August 8 told the county they were underinsured, collecting only $40 million to rebuild. They're asking for a repeated, additional $36 million from Maui County taxpayers to rebuild.
When insurance money runs out, FEMA departs, and Maui County finally builds 800 affordable homes on the West Side (mahalo) ... that's when astronomical rents will reduce.
The better one-to-two-year solution: How about helping residents access affordable loans to rebuild? How about helping residents and landlords access labor and material building costs?
Kelli Lundgren
Lahaina