Population of Maui County expected to hit 211,500 in 2045

That’s 28 percent more than 2016, state report shows

Maui County's resident population is projected to grow 28 percent to 211,500 in 2045 from 165,474 in 2016, though annual growth rates are expected to be around 1 percent, according to a state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism report released Thursday.

The county's de facto population, which includes the number of tourists on the three populated islands in the county, will hit nearly 300,000 people in 27 years, according to the report titled "Population and Economic Projections for the State of Hawaii to 2045." The de facto population will grow 35 percent from 218,059 in 2016 to 293,300 in 2045.

The report is the ninth in a series of long-range projections that began 1978 and is published every five to six years. The last report was published in March 2012. The report released Thursday uses population and economic data from the U.S. Census Bureau and analysis by the department.

"These projections will help the state and counties with infrastructure and economic planning, while businesses can use the projections in developing their growth strategies," said department Director Luis Salaveria.

The report projects the state's resident population to be 1,648,600 in 2045, up 15 percent from 1,428,557 in 2016. The Neighbor Islands are expected to grow faster than the City and County of Honolulu through 2045 with Honolulu's percentage of the state's resident population dropping from 69.5 percent to 65.1 percent, the report shows.

While Maui County's resident population is projected to grow 28 percent from 2016, annual growth rates are expected to continue a downward trend since 1980, the report shows. The county's population, which was 71,600 in 1980, grew at a rate of 3.6 percent annually from 1980 to 1990. The rate of annual growth fell to 1.1 percent in the 2010-16 period and is projected to be 0.7 percent in the 2035-45 period.

In the economic realm, the number of jobs in Maui County is expected to grow by a third between 2016 to 2045 from 106,700 to 142,100, though annual job growth rates are expected to decline to 1.2 percent from 2016 to 2025, 1 percent from 2025 to 2035 and 0.8 percent from 2035 to 2045.

Employment sectors with projected higher growth rates include health, educational, business and professional services and work in eating and drinking places.

The annual average growth rate of personal income in Maui County is projected to be about 2.5 percent through 2045, the report said.

Hawaii's economy as measured by gross domestic product is expected to grow 1.7 percent between 2016 and 2045, a pace slower than the 1.9 percent between 1986 and 2016.

The report also addressed life expectancy. In Maui County, men are expected to live to 83.3 years on average in 2045, compared to 78.2 years in 2016. Women have a longer life expectancy, 88.2 years in 2045, up from 83.3 years in 2016.

Statewide, the elderly population (65 years and older) will grow at an annual pace of 1.7 percent between 2016 and 2045. By 2045, the elderly will account for 23.8 percent of the state's resident population, compared to 17.1 percent in 2016.

Eugene Tian, the department's chief state economist, noted that it is difficult to project economic indicators into the future with the rapid changes and developments in technology and regulations. However, the department's projections for resident population for 2015, reported in its 2012 report, was only 0.5 percent off the actual total.

The report can be found at dbedt.hawaii.gov/economic/economic-forecast/2045-long-range-forecast/.

* Lee Imada can be reached at leeimada@mauinews.com